Macro Strategy - Thomas J. Lee, CFA

At Fundstrat, our Macro Strategy dives deep into the intricate webs of global economic trends, offering a panoramic view of the financial landscape. Our seasoned team harnesses a wealth of experience and data-driven methodologies to forecast market trajectories, ensuring you are equipped with actionable insights to capitalize on macroeconomic shifts. With our macro research, not only do you stay ahead of the curve, but you're also empowered with strategic intelligence to navigate market complexities with precision.

About the Strategist

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Thomas J. Lee, CFA – Co-Founder, Head of Research

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney.

Our Approach

Actionable Investment Ideas

  • Tailored recommendations based on macro trends
  • Sector-specific actionable insights for optimal portfolio positioning
  • Frequent updates ensuring timely decision-making

Global Economic Health

  • Periodic assessments of global GDP growth
  • Evaluations of leading and lagging economic indicators
  • In-depth analysis of global trade patterns

Monetary Policies and Central Banks

  • Insights into global central bank actions
  • Predictive analysis of interest rate shifts
  • Assessment of quantitative easing impacts

Inflation Dynamics

  • Comprehensive reviews of inflationary trends
  • Insights into core vs. headline inflation
  • Evaluations of factors driving inflationary pressures

Interest Rates and Fixed Income Markets

  • Analysis of yield curves and their implications
  • Predictions on interest rate trajectories
  • Insights into global bond markets

Sector Weighting

  • Sectoral analysis based on macroeconomic shifts
  • Recommendations on sector allocations
  • Insights into emerging sector opportunities

Currency Markets

  • Deep dives into major and minor currency pairs
  • Analysis of geopolitical events affecting currency values
  • Predictions on future currency strength and weaknesses

Commodities and Energy

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Emerging Markets

  • Comprehensive analysis of burgeoning economies
  • Evaluations of risks and opportunities in specific regions
  • Insights into trade dynamics affecting emerging markets

Demographics and Social Trends

  • Analysis of global demographic shifts
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Geopolitical Risks

  • Comprehensive assessment of global political events
  • Predictions on market reactions to geopolitical tensions
  • Analysis of potential economic sanctions and their impacts

Sustainability and Climate Economics

  • Examination of oil, gold, and other commodity price movements
  • Insights into supply-demand dynamics
  • Predictions based on geopolitical and environmental factors

Research and Coverage

Reports

First Word

Delve deep into a holistic market overview with our "First Word" reports. Scrutinize macro indicators, current trends, and sector rotations, and unravel fact-based evidence that points towards prospective market opportunities.

As we enter final week of June, global economy strengthened while inflation weakened = stocks up for "right" reasons and well setup for July

VIDEO: As we enter final week of June, the global economy's fundamentals strengthened this month, while inflation weakened = stocks up for the right reasons (duration: 3:07).

AAPL
AIQ
AMD
AMZN
ANET
ARM
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COIN
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
IJR
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
LLY
MARA
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
NVO
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
PYPL
REX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SPOT
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
WING
WSM
XLF
XLI
ZS
Thomas Lee - June 23, 2024

⚡️FlashInsights

Dive into real-time market insights with Tom Lee as he navigates through crucial market dynamics and events pivotal to macro strategy. Stay informed, stay ahead.

Thomas Lee
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

The drop in US 10-year yields this week from 4.4% to 4.2% is a very good thing: * this is an outright easing of financial conditions * even if Fed make a "hawkish" pause Wednesday * doesn’t matter if this drop in...

Jun 14
11:01 AM
Thomas Lee
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

More encouraging economic data today: * jobless claims up = good (softer labor) * PPI downside reading = good * PPI reading affirms good CPI we still view stocks as buyable here. Strong into month end $SPY $IWM $QQQ

Jun 13
9:05 AM

Intraday Alerts

When the market takes unexpected turns, our "Intraday Alerts" come to your rescue. These short-form reports clarify significant market-moving events, ensuring you're never caught off-guard and always make informed decisions.

INTRADAY ALERT: May core CPI downside of +0.16% mom affirms rationale to buy stocks this week and into month end

PART I: 36 GRANNY SHOTS: Updated list is belowThe revised 36 Granny shots are shown below. The list is sorted by the most attractive (most frequently cited) to least. To be a “Granny shot” the stock needs to appear in at least...

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NFLX
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SPOT
TDG
TPX
TSLA
WING
WSM
ZS
Thomas Lee - June 12, 2024

Granny Shots

Explore the market's latent potentials with "Granny Shots". This in-depth report accentuates dominant themes and trends, spotlighting individual stocks set to transcend market expectations.

6

Themes

Over
40

Stocks

  • Super Grannies
  • Sleeping grannies
  • Updated Monthly

Earnings

When earnings season rolls around, we've got you covered. Our comprehensive reports detail earning conditions, earning beats, and stock performance by sector, providing a clear and insightful analysis of the market's response to earnings releases.

Fundstrat 1Q24 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update - 5/31/24

Click HERE to view the report in PDF format.  * 10 companies are reporting this week. * Of the 491 companies that have reported so far (98% of the S&P 500): * Overall, 82% are beating estimates, and those that "beat" are...

Fundstrat Team - May 31, 2024

Weekly Roadmap

End your week with our "Weekly Roadmap", a summary that encapsulates our expert views and closing remarks for the week. This digest is crafted to bring all market happenings and our insights into one coherent context, ensuring you're well-informed and ready for the week ahead.

Stocks Continue Notching June Gains

“I just - I love my job. I love doing it. It's a passionate endeavor. And sometimes you can get close to something that you believe is the truth. The truth of something. Not all the time, but...

F
NVDA
QQQ
June 21, 2024

Media

Macro Minute Video

Visualize macro strategy insights with "Macro Minute". These concise video briefings furnish clients with a snapshot of present market opportunities and prevailing trends, ensuring you're always one step ahead in the investment game.

June 24, 2024

VIDEO FLASH: Case-Shiller April price data (Tue 9am ET) likely to confirm home prices YoY set to roll over.  Also, Bitcoin selloff from Mt Gox only temporary

VIDEO: The year ago Case-Shiller home prices were rising ~0.80% MoM April thru Sept, and the pace in 2024 is more like +0.30% MoM.  This means home prices YoY are set to rollover hard = affirming future shelter...

Thomas Lee
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

Annual Outlook

As we look ahead, our annual outlook serves as a comprehensive guide for our clients, detailing our predictions and strategies for different sectors and indexes in the upcoming year. This outlook is crucial in helping our clients position themselves for future market developments.

Market Update Webinar

Stay abreast of market trends and have your queries resolved with our Market Update webinars. These sessions are designed to provide clarity on current market conditions and assist clients in strategizing accordingly.

Special Webinars

Our special webinars are dedicated to unraveling specific market phenomena such as inflation and other vital macro metrics. These sessions provide in-depth insights, aiding clients in navigating through complex market dynamics.

CEO Interviews

Leverage our extensive network as we sit down with prominent CEOs to gain firsthand insights into the landscape of their respective sectors or sub-industries. These interviews are a goldmine of information, offering unique perspectives that can significantly impact investment strategies.

Expert Interviews

In our commitment to provide multi-faceted insights, we conduct interviews with technical experts and other key industry figures, shedding light on nuanced aspects of the market and bringing diverse perspectives to our clients.

Fund Managers Interviews

We delve into the minds of fund managers, exploring their strategies and approaches in navigating the complexities of the current macroeconomic landscape. These interviews offer a glimpse into the world of fund management, providing valuable takeaways for our clients.

Archives

Appearances Media Archives

Our researchers make appearances across a variety of media outlets including podcasts, TV shows, newspapers, and financial magazines. We diligently track and archive these appearances, creating a comprehensive media library that our clients can refer to at their convenience.

Video: 'This is a year for risk-taking': Fundstrat strategist

2 months ago

CNBC Media Archives

We maintain an archive of CNBC appearances by Tom Lee, our Head of Research, highlighting his role as a contributor of note to a premier news platform. Much more than occasional opportunities, these are regular invitations to weigh in on market-moving topics. The habit of seeing Tom on a CNBC screen underscores the degree to which the financial media recognizes his ability to consistently generate market insights – which are also available to our subscribers in greater detail and in multiple formats via our research reports, videos, webinars, and client calls.

Video: Buying at new highs has a better win ratio than attempting to buy at lows, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

26 days ago

Sample Reports

Probabilities suggest "hot" Feb core CPI above consensus of +0.30%. Jan "hot" CPI drove a 3% sell-off. But with "gas in the tank," this is a buy the dip moment.

VIDEO: February CPI is reported on Tuesday. I think there’s a risk that it’s a hot number, but it’s probably similar to January when you wanted to buy that 3% pullback that follows a hot CPI. (duration: 3:40)....

AIQ
AMD
AMZN
ARM
AXP
CDNS
COIN
GOOGL
IJR
IWM
LLY
MARA
META
NVDA
NVO
PYPL
XLF
XLI
March 11, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

January on track for >3% gain, solidifying 2024 to be positive (>92% probability) and suggests our 5,200 target might be low.

VIDEO: Even more important than FOMC or even macro this week is the Wed close.  Jan is on track to be positive and it supports our case for 5200 or even much higher (duration: 4:05).

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
AX
AXP
AYI
BELFB
BKNG
BLD
BLK
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CDRE
CMG
CRD
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DBX
DECK
DFH
EG
ENVA
EXP
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HACK
HCI
HIBB
HY
IBP
IMGN
INTU
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MNST
MPC
MSFT
NBIX
NEU
NFLX
NOW
NSIT
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
OPFI
ORCL
OSW
PAGS
PANW
PBPB
PLUS
PSX
QLYS
QQQ
REX
ROCK
SCS
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SSTK
TAST
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
V
VRTX
WING
WSM
XLF
XLI
XLK
ZS
January 30, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

Latest Publications

As we enter final week of June, global economy strengthened while inflation weakened = stocks up for "right" reasons and well setup for July

VIDEO: As we enter final week of June, the global economy's fundamentals strengthened this month, while inflation weakened = stocks up for the right reasons (duration: 3:07).

AAPL
AIQ
AMD
AMZN
ANET
ARM
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COIN
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
IJR
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
LLY
MARA
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
NVO
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
PYPL
REX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SPOT
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
WING
WSM
XLF
XLI
ZS
June 23, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

The surge in new car inventory points to further goods deflation ahead = inflation falling like a rock = supportive of higher P/E

VIDEO: The important macro news this week is the piling up of new car inventory and this will put downward pressure on car prices and CPI (duration: 3:32).

AAPL
AIQ
AMD
AMZN
ANET
ARM
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COIN
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
IJR
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
LLY
MARA
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
NVO
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
PYPL
REX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SPOT
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
WING
WSM
XLF
XLI
ZS
June 20, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

The CPI, PPI and NY Fed reports show so much disinflation, markets are skeptical. But this week reinforces our view inflation is falling like a rock = supportive of higher P/E into year-end

VIDEO: The key inflation reports this week CPI, PPI, NY Fed were dovish.  And the magnitude of improvement so significant, markets are skeptical (duration: 3:20).

AAPL
AIQ
AMD
AMZN
ANET
ARM
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COIN
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
EXP
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HCI
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
IJR
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
LLY
MARA
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NEU
NFLX
NOV
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
NVO
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
PYPL
REX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SMLR
SPOT
TDG
TPX
TREE
TSLA
WING
WSM
XLF
XLI
ZS
June 13, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

INTRADAY ALERT: May core CPI downside of +0.16% mom affirms rationale to buy stocks this week and into month end

PART I: 36 GRANNY SHOTS: Updated list is belowThe revised 36 Granny shots are shown below. The list is sorted by the most attractive (most frequently cited) to least. To be a “Granny shot” the stock needs to...

AAPL
AMD
AMZN
ANET
AXON
AXP
AYI
BLD
CARG
CAT
CDNS
CMG
COP
COST
CRM
CRWD
CVNA
DECK
DFH
EOG
FANG
FLS
GBX
GMS
GOOGL
GRMN
GWW
HIBB
HUBS
IBP
ISRG
IWM
JPM
KLAC
META
MLI
MPC
MSFT
NFLX
NOW
NSSC
NVDA
ODFL
ORCL
PANW
PLTR
PLUS
PSX
SEMR
SHAK
SMCI
SPOT
TDG
TPX
TSLA
WING
WSM
ZS
June 12, 2024
reserach-mark image
Thomas Lee
Head of Research

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